Применение метода подталкивания с целью получения начальных состояний для сезонных ретроспективных прогнозов климатической модели ИВМ РАН
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26089/NumMet.v26r325Ключевые слова:
климатическая модель ИВМ РАН, метод подталкивания, ретроспективные сезонные прогнозы, инициализацияАннотация
В данном исследовании рассматривается применение метода подталкивания в глобальной климатической модели ИВМ РАН для улучшения начальных состояний для сезонных ретроспективных прогнозов. Результаты трех климатических экспериментов с подталкиванием сравниваются с данными реанализов и ансамблем исторических экспериментов по протоколу CMIP6. Применение метода подталкивания позволяет значительно уменьшить ошибки модели в воспроизведении атмосферных и океанических полей. Эксперимент, в котором подталкивание не применяется к приземным атмосферным уровням, показывает наилучшие результаты за счет уменьшения влияния процедур подталкивания на физику пограничного слоя модели атмосферы. Проводится сравнение качества ретроспективных прогнозов на ноябрь–март, полученных с использованием различных методов инициализации. Подход с использованием начальных состояний по данным расчетов с подталкиванием превосходит другие методы инициализации для ретроспективных прогнозов на зимний сезон Северного полушария с заблаговременностью один месяц. Однако для первого месяца прогноза наилучшие результаты демонстрирует инициализация полными полями. В работе подчеркивается необходимость использования подталкивания в модели океана для обеспечения качественного прогноза с большой заблаговременностью, а также предлагается применение этого метода для инициализации климатических прогнозов на год–десятилетие.
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